The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration forecasts a 75% chance of a near normal or above normal season. To break it down, there is a 40% chance of an average season with 12 named storms and a 35% chance we see more named storms than 12. Several factors go into NOAA’s outlook including a look at the current sea surface temperatures which are near normal.
One thing to keep in mind when seeing these outlooks is that they are quantity forecasts, not location forecasts. It only takes one storm to come in and impact the Carolinas. These outlooks should not change any pre-season hurricane preparations.
The Grand Strand is due for a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) landfall and preparations should be well underway with the 2018 Hurricane Season beginning June 1st. Historically speaking, major hurricanes have made landfall in South Carolina in September, October and November. However, 41% of all named storms form in June, July and August.
