The 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins Friday, June 1st. While this season seems to be off to an early start with Alberto crossed off the list before the end of May, this doesn’t necessarily foreshadow an active season. NOAA has predicted a 35% chance of an above average season, a 40% chance of an active season and a 25% chance of a below normal season.
The sea surface temperatures are slightly cooler than normal for this time of year which could have an impact on the number and strength of storms that do develop. This could lead to less storms and weaker storms due to less available ocean energy for the storms to feed off of.
The tropics are quieting down, for now, as the remnants of Alberto dissipate in the north. On average, about 6% of storms develop in the month of June. The image below, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, shows the development locations and tracks of named storms between June 1st and June 10th since 1851.
Another season update from NOAA will come out in August, which is right before typically the most active months of the season, September and October. Colorado State University’s updated forecast was released Thursday, May 31st and forecasts, including Alberto, 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The two forecasts are close in agreement.