5 PM THURSDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian has started to speed up moving NE at 10 mph. The eye of the hurricane is 38 miles offshore passing south/ southeast of Myrtle Beach. It is continuing on the Northeastward path as predicted. A storm surge warning is still in effect, the bulk of the storm surge has since dwindled. Damaging winds and torrential rain remain a factor along the coast of South Carolina. Flash flooding is occurring and will continue to become more widespread across eastern portions of the Carolinas. Myrtle Beach has topped 8 inches of rain. Radar is estimating over 10 inches of rain in the area, also expecting a lot more rain along the coast.
2 PM THURSDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian, located about 60 miles south of Myrtle Beach, remains consistent as it moves parallel to the South Carolina coast. Dorian remains a category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds at 110 mph. The hurricane is still moving NNE at 8 mph, and the pressure stays at 958 mb. The high tide was at 1:30 p.m., however, storm surge is still a significant threat with this storm. Damaging wind and torrential rain is also something to watch for with Dorian. Radar is estimating over 10 inches of rain in the area, also expecting a lot more rain along the coast. The amount of rainfall will drastically reduce west of I-95.
12 PM THURSDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian is back to a category 2 storm. The maximum sustain winds have gone back up to 110 mph. Wind gust associated with Dorian 78 mph near Charleston.
11 AM THURSDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian still has a well defined eye and the northwestern portion of the eye wall is not too far offshore from South Carolina.
Dorian is currently moving NNE at 8 mph. The maximum sustained winds are 110 mph making Dorian a strong category 2 storm. The hurricane is expected to remain powerful as it heads towards the Carolinas. Dorian has moved slightly in the eastward direction and in the next few hours is expected to head northeastward.
The pressure has risen to 958 mb. The main threat with this damaging winds and storm is storm ; the water by the beaches could reach 5-8 ft above ground. Radar is estimating over 10 inches of rain in the area.
The storm should continue to turn to the northeast throughout the afternoon.
We are still expecting hurricane conditions along the Grand Strand, and tropical storm conditions in the Pee Dee. Wind and rain will increase overnight, with the worst of the weather in the afternoon and evening.
Also expecting a lot more rain along the coast. The amount of rainfall will drastically reduce west of I-95.
Also expecting the potential for storm surge to increase throughout the day on Thursday, especially during high tide at 1:30 pm.
9 AM THURSDAY UPDATE:
The eye of Hurricane Dorian now moving north-northeastward as projected. Dorian is now located 70 miles SSE of Charleston. Dorian is still a category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds at 115 mph. Also expecting the potential for storm surge to increase throughout the day on Thursday, especially during high tide at 1:30 pm. Life-threatening storm surge is a significant threat with Dorian; the water by the beaches could reach 5-8 ft above ground. Radar is estimating over 10 inches of rain in the area.
5AM THURSDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian remains a major hurricane with 115 mph winds. The category three storm is moving north at 8 mph and is about 60 miles south of Charleston.
The storm should start to turn to the northeast throughout the early morning hours, then pick up speed. Dorian strengthened overnight as it pulled further away from land and passed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. As the storm gets closer to the coast, and wind shear increases throughout the morning, the storm should slowly weaken.
1 a.m. Thursday Update:
Hurricane Dorian remains a major hurricane with 115 mph winds. The category three storm is moving north at 7 mph and is about 90 miles south of Charleston.
The storm should start to turn to the northeast throughout the early morning hours, then pick up speed. Dorian strengthened overnight as it pulled further away from land and passed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. As the storm gets closer to the coast, and wind shear increases throughout the morning, the storm should slowly weaken.
12 a.m. Thursday update:
Hurricane Dorian remains a major hurricane with 115 mph winds. The category three storm is moving north at 7 mph and is about 100 miles south of Charleston.
The storm should start to turn to the northeast overnight, then pick up speed. Dorian strengthened overnight as the storm passed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. As the storm gets closer to the coast, and wind shear increase in the morning, the storm should slowly weaken.
We are still expecting hurricane conditions along the Grand Strand, and tropical storm conditions in the Pee Dee. Wind and rain will increase overnight, with the worst of the weather in the afternoon and evening.
11 p.m. Wednesday update:
Hurricane Dorian is once again a major hurricane with 115 mph winds. The category 3 storm is moving to the north at 7 mph and is currently located 105 miles south of Charleston.
The storm should start to turn to the northeast overnight, then pick up speed tomorrow. Dorian strengthened tonight as the storm passed over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. As the storm gets closer to the coast, and wind shear increase tomorrow, the storm should slowly weaken.
We are still expecting hurricane conditions along the Grand Strand, and tropical storm conditions in the Pee Dee. Wind and rain will increase tonight, with the worst of the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.
9 p.m. Wednesday update:
Hurricane Dorian is a strong category 2 hurricane, currently about 130 miles south of Charleston. At the 9 pm update, the central pressure of the storm is lowering a bit. This could lead to some strengthening tonight, and if it does get any stronger, it will be a category 3 storm.
Dorian continues to move to the NNW, but should turn to the NNE, then NE tonight. The longer it waits to make the turn to the northeast, the closer it will be to the land, and greater impact the storm will have on the Carolina coast.
The forecast continues to move the storm about 40 miles east of the Grand Strand as a category 2 hurricane tomorrow afternoon and evening. This is close enough to bring hurricane conditions to the Grand Strand, and tropical storm conditions to the Pee Dee.
Wind and rain will increase tonight, and the worst of the weather will be Thursday afternoon into evening. Hurricane Dorian will move away tomorrow night, with improving weather by Friday morning.
7 p.m. Wednesday update:
Dorian is about 150 miles south of Charleston as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds, which is just below Category 3 strength. Dorian might get stronger as it moves north-northwest at 8 mph. The eye has gotten more organized through the evening hours. We’re still waiting for the northeast turn. That should happen overnight and into Thursday morning.
5 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian has begun to strengthen a little as it heads NNW at eight mph. The maximum sustained wind has moved back up to 110 mph, and the pressure has dropped to 961 mb. Dorian, still a Category 2 storm, but is 1 mph from being a Category 3 hurricane. Dorian is about 150 miles away from Charleston. Life-threatening storm surge is a significant threat with Dorian; the water by the beaches could reach 5-8 ft above ground.
3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE:
As of 3pm Wednesday, some outer rain bands continue to push in along the Grand Strand. Dorian is currently a category 2 storms with winds still at 105mph moving north northwest at 9mph. Dorian is about 170 miles to the southwest of Charleston.
1 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE:
Category 2 Hurricane Dorian is about 90 miles off the coast of Daytona Beach and has wind speeds of 105 mph.
It’s 205 miles south of Charleston, as it continues to move to the north at 9 mph. It’s expected remain on the same track before it turns to the northeast Thursday.
The storm is getting faster, which is good because that makes it less likely to linger over Carolina.
12 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian continues its path along Florida’s coastline towards the Carolinas. The Category 2 storm has sustained winds of 105 mph.
It’s heading towards the northwest at about 9 mph, with outer rain bands beginning to impact sections to Charleston, Georgetown and Horry Counties.
Tracks continue to forecast the storm skirting along the Carolina coast.
11 AM WEDNESDAY UPDATE:
Very little change to Hurricane Dorian over the past 6 hour with intensity remaining a cat 2, with winds still at 105 mph.
Dorian did speed up to 9 mph and it’s still on its NNW track. It should continue along this track for the rest of the day before making the north then NE turn throughout the overnight and into tomorrow.
No significant changes to the forecast track and intensity. Dorian is still expected to pick up a little more speed as it moves around the western edge of the subtropical ridge.
Dorian is still expected to move up the coast of the Carolinas as a weak Cat 2 storm, possibly making landfall along the coast of North Carolina early Friday morning. See below for the potential impacts for the Carolinas.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the eastern Carolinas with the worst conditions closer to the coast.
Also expecting a lot more rain along the coast. The amount of rainfall will drastically reduce west of I-95.
Also expecting the potential for storm surge to increase throughout the day on Thursday, especially during high tide.
8 AM WEDNESDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian is currently moving NNW at eight mph. It is currently picking up speed at it heads north about 100 miles off Florida’s east coast. The eye of the storm is still broad and less defined. The storm is starting to weaken with the pressure increasing to 964 mb. Georgetown and Horry county are under a Hurricane Watch. They are also expecting the potential for storm surge to increase throughout the day on Thursday, especially during high tide. Storm surge with this storm can be 5-10 ft along the beaches.
6AM WEDNESDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian has picked up a little more speed throughout the overnight and is currently moving to the NW at 8 mph. IT also decreased a little in intensity with current winds at 105 mph.
The NNW motion will continue through today, with the hurricane slowly gaining speed. On Thursday, Dorian will turn more to the northeast, allowing the storm to parallel the Carolina coast.
Dorian continues to suck in dry air and has been weakening quicker than forecast models suggest. If this trend continues, we could possibly see Dorian weaken to a Cat 1 as it moves up the SC coast.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the eastern Carolinas with the worst conditions closer to the coast.
Also expecting a lot more rain along the coast. The amount of rainfall will drastically reduce west of I-95.
Also expecting the potential for storm surge to increase throughout the day on Thursday, especially during high tide.
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4AM WEDNESDAY UPDATE
Hurricane Dorian has picked up a little more speed throughout the overnight and is currently moving to the NW at 8 mph. IT also decreased a little in intensity with current winds at 105 mph.
The NNW motion will continue through today, with the hurricane slowly gaining speed. On Thursday, Dorian will turn more to the northeast, allowing the storm to parallel the Carolina coast.
The forecast remains unchanged with the hurricane moving by about 50 miles off the Grand Strand coast. This is close enough to bring hurricane force winds to the Grand Strand, and tropical storm force winds to the Pee Dee.
11PM TUESDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian continues to slowly pull away from the Bahamas, moving to the NNW at 6 mph. Peak winds at 11 pm remain at 110 mph, and Dorian is still a category 2 hurricane.
The north to northwest motion will continue through tomorrow, with the hurricane slowly gaining speed. On Thursday, Dorian will turn more to the northeast, allowing the storm to parallel the Carolina coast.
The forecast remains unchanged with the hurricane moving by about 50 miles off the Grand Strand coast. This is close enough to bring hurricane force winds to the Grand Strand, and tropical storm force winds to the Pee Dee.
8PM TUESDAY UPDATE:
At 8pm, Hurricane Dorian was located 110 miles east of Cape Canaveral, and was moving NW at 6 mph. The category 2 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 110 mph.
Hurricane Dorian has undergone an eyewall replacement cycle today. The small eye from this morning was replaced by a much larger eye. When hurricanes perform an eyewall replacement, they normally weaken, but grow larger… with wind fields that cover more area. Dorian weakened to a category 2 hurricane today, but the hurricane force and tropical storm force winds now extend much farther from the center of the storm.
This is important for the forecast in the Carolinas. The storm is forecast to pass offshore of the Carolinas, but with a much larger wind field, it will be easier to get tropical storm force winds into the Pee Dee, and hurricane force winds to the Grand Strand.
5PM TUESDAY UPDATE: A Hurricane warning has been issued from Savannah River to Edisto Beach SC and from South Santee River, SC to Surf City NC. This includes all of Horry and Georgetown counties. Tropical Storm Warnings have now been issued for Florence, Marion, Dillon, Darlington, Marlboro, and Robeson counties. Hurricane Dorian is still a Cat 2 storm with winds near 110mph, moving slowly northwest at 6mph. Forecast track has shifted a little bit to the west as more forecast models inch Dorian close to SC/NC. The NHC forecast track does not have a landfall in SC, however, any shift to the west could greatly effect impacts to our area. Hurricane force sustain winds (74mph+) can be expected in Horry and Georgetown counties and tropical storm force winds can be expected inland where there are tropical storm watches. Winds could gust as high as 90-100mph in Horry and Georgetown counties while inland anywhere between 40-60mph wind gust possible. Time frame for conditions to get worse will be late Wednesday into much of thursday. 5-10inches of rain for the coast can be expected and 1-4 inches of rain inland.
11AM TUESDAY UPDATE: Recent radar and aircraft data show that Dorian has finally begun to move northwestward at 2mph. Dorian has weakened to a category 2 storm with winds of 110mph. Hurricane Watches now include Horry and Georgetown and up north through the Cape Fear region of NC.
9AM TUESDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian has weakened a little more with winds down to 115 mph as it moves to the NW at 1 mph.
It is expected to pick up a little speed throughout the day and make a little more of a turn to the north later this afternoon/evening. The coast of Florida is no longer in the cone but models still show the cone moving onshore in the Carolinas.
The forecast is for Dorian to remain a major, Cat 3 hurricane through Wednesday. The storm should start to move to the northwest, then north later in the day as it picks up speed thanks to strengthening steering currents. Late Wednesday, the storm will turn to the northeast and approach the Carolinas. The hurricane is forecast to pass offshore of the Carolinas on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the eastern Carolinas with the worst conditions closer to the coast.
Also expecting a lot more rain along the coast. The amount of rainfall will drastically reduce west of I-95.
Also expecting the potential for storm surge to increase throughout the day on Thursday, especially during high tide.
7AM TUESDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian remain stalled over the Bahamas and there is no change to the forecast. Dorian is expected to move throughout the day today and the coast of Florida is no longer in the cone. See the graphics below for the latest forecast on forecasted wind, rain and storm surge. Next forecast update will come in at 11 am.
4AM TUESDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian was still located over Grand Bahama Island, or about 100 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida and has not moved much over the last 18 hours. Maximum winds are down to 120 mph, but it is still a powerful category 3 hurricane.
The forecast is for Dorian to remain a major, Cat 3 hurricane through Wednesday. The storm should start to move to the northwest, then north later in the day as it picks up speed thanks to strengthening steering currents. Late Wednesday, the storm will turn to the northeast and approach the Carolinas. The hurricane is forecast to pass offshore of the Carolinas on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the eastern Carolinas with the worst conditions closer to the coast.
Also expecting a lot more rain along the coast. The amount of rainfall will drastically reduce west of I-95.
Also expecting the potential for storm surge to increase throughout the day on Thursday, especially during high tide.
11PM MONDAY UPDATE:
At 11pm, Hurricane Dorian was still located over Grand Bahama Island, or about 100 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. The storm has not moved much today. Maximum winds are down to 130 mph, but it is still a powerful category 4 hurricane.
The forecast is for Dorian to remain a major hurricane through Wednesday. Tuesday morning, the storm should start to move to the northwest, then north later in the day as it picks up speed. Late Wednesday, the storm will turn to the northeast and approach the Carolinas. The hurricane is forecast to pass offshore of the Carolinas on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the eastern Carolinas with the worst conditions closer to the coast.
8PM MONDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian is still stalled over the Bahamas. At 8pm, the storm was located 105 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are down to 140 mph, but Dorian is still a dangerous category 4 hurricane.
The storm should start to move northward late tonight or early tomorrow morning. The forecast path keeps Hurricane Dorian off the coast of Florida as a major hurricane through Wednesday. Late Wednesday, Dorian will start to accelerate to the northeast.
The storm is forecast to pass about 50 miles offshore of the Grand Strand on Thursday. This would bring increasing wind and rain late Wednesday with tropical storm conditions Wednesday night and Thursday. The storm will quickly move away Thursday night.
If this forecast path verifies, Georgetown and Horry Counties would see 50-70 mph winds and 4-8 inches of rain. The Pee Dee would see 30-50 mph and 1-4 inches of rain, with the highest rain closest to the beach.
There is still enough uncertainty in the forecast that a track not too far to the west would bring hurricane conditions to the coast.
5PM MONDAY UPDATE:
Dorian remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery. Recent radar and aircraft observations are again showing signs of a concentric eyewall structure which might be one of the factors that has led to a decrease in the peak winds and a small expansion of the wind field. Some additional weakening is expected , Dorian is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane. As of 5pm Monday, Dorian still had winds of 145mph, movement was stationary and pressure at 940mb.
A slow westward to west-northwest motion should resume overnight and continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only slowly pulling away from the Grand Bahama Island. By Tuesday afternoon, Dorian should begin it’s much anticipated northwestward turn as a weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge. Dorian is epxected to move 40-50 miles just off shore of the SC coast. However, any deviation of the track toward the west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore. With the wind field expanding through time, tropical storm conditions can be expected Wednesday through Thursday night in our area with wind gust over 74mph. Dorian will then head up just offshore of the NC coast and clearing by Friday.
The biggest threat for the Grand Strand will be storm surge, threat for isolated Tornadoes, winds 50-70mph sustain and gust over 74. Area wide, 5-8 inches of rain along the Grand Strand, 1-3 inches of rain inland.
2PM MONDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian continues to be a very dangerous category 4 storm over the Bahamas with winds at 150mph. The storm is crawling at a 1mph speed to the west northwest. Pressure is up to 938mb.
FORECAST:
The steering currents have weakened, but it is expected to make a turn to the NW, slowly over the next 24 hours. Dorian will encounter increased shear, which will slowly weaken even more it as it moves up the coast.
The timing of this turn is critical to the forecast in the Carolinas. While the forecast has Dorian offshore of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, it would not take much of a jog to the west to take a strong hurricane to the coast, which is what the current GFS model is showing. The EURO model show a slightly slower storm, a little further offshore.
Expect the conditions to slowly worsen late on Wednesday with the potential for tropical storm force winds, near hurricane strength along the coast throughout the day on Thursday.
Forecast models are suggesting 6″ to 10″ of rain east of I-95, 4″ to 6″ west of I-95.
7 AM MONDAY UPDATE:
At 7am, a Hurricane Watch continues in Florida to the Georgia state line. Dorian remains a very strong category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds. Some weakening is expected today, but Dorian will stay a major hurricane into Wednesday.
The steering currents have weakened, while is why Dorian is almost at a standstill over Grand Bahama Island. It is moving to the west at 1 mph and is expected to make a turn to the NW, slowly over the next 24 hours. Dorian will encounter increased shear, which will slowly weaken it as it moves up the coast.
The timing of this turn is critical to the forecast in the Carolinas. While the forecast has Dorian offshore of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, it would not take much of a jog to the west to take a strong hurricane to the coast.
Expect the conditions to slowly worsen throughout the day on Wednesday with the potential for tropical storm force winds and 6″ to 10″ of rain.
4 AM MONDAY UPDATE:
At 4am, a Hurricane Watch continues in Florida to the Georgia state line. Dorian remains a very strong category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds. Some weakening is expected today, but Dorian will stay a major hurricane into Wednesday.
Dorian is expected to move slowly through today, and even stall at times. Late today into early Tuesday, it will start to move to the north, and increase in speed. The timing of this turn is critical to the forecast in the Carolinas. While the forecast has Dorian offshore of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, it would not take much of a jog to the west to take a strong hurricane to the coast.
11 PM SUNDAY UPDATE:
At 11pm, a Hurricane Watch has been issued in Florida to the Georgia state line. Dorian remains a very strong category 5 hurricane with 180 mph winds. Some weakening is expected tonight and tomorrow, but Dorian will stay a major hurricane into Wednesday.
Dorian is expected to move slowly through tomorrow, and even stall at times. Late tomorrow of early Tuesday it will start to move to the north, and increase in speed. The timing of this turn is critical to the forecast in the Carolinas. While the forecast has Dorian offshore of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, it would not take much of a jog to the west to take a strong hurricane to the coast.
8 PM SUNDAY UPDATE:
The 8pm intermediate update offers no changes to the strength, movement or forecast of Hurricane Dorian. Winds are still at 185 mph, and the storm is still moving to the west at 5 mph. The storm is currently located between Great Abaco and Grand Bahamas Islands, or about 155 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida.
The forecast calls for Dorian to move slowly through the northern Bahamas through tomorrow and tomorrow night. On Tuesday, the storm should start to move to the north and accelerate. Any impacts on the Carolinas will be late Wednesday into Thursday.
5 PM SUNDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian continues to move through the Bahamas as one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are at 185 mph, with gusts over 200 mph. The storm is showing no signs of weakening, however it has started to slow down. At 5pm, Dorian is moving to the west at 5mph, and is still located over the Abaco Islands, Bahamas
The storm is forecast to continue to slow down, and will likely move at less than 5 mph for the next two days. Dorian may even stall for a time. Some weakening should occur in the next two days, but Dorian is expected to remain a category 5 storm into Monday, and a category 4 into Tuesday. The forecast calls for Dorian to still be a major, category 3 hurricane on Wednesday.
Dorian is expected to start moving to the northwest, then north on Tuesday, and increasing in forward speed. As the storm approaches the Carolinas late Wednesday and Thursday, it should move to the northeast, keeping it offshore. Even a path 50 miles off the Grand Strand would still bring heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to our area.
Average hurricane forecast track errors at 3-4 days out are 100-150 miles. Even a 50 mile shift either closer to the coast or farther out to sea will have big impacts on the type of weather we see in the Carolinas.
2 PM SUNDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian continues to strengthen at 2pm, with winds up to 185 mph. The storm is located over the Abacos Islands in the Bahamas, and is moving to the west at 7 mph. The storm will continue as a category 5 hurricane as it heads toward Grand Bahama. Dorian is one of the strongest hurricanes ever observed in the Atlantic.
The forecast is for this major hurricane to continue to slowly move through the northern Bahamas for the next two days, then slowly turn to the northwest late Monday or Tuesday. The storm will move closer to the Florida coast late Monday and Tuesday.
The forecast still calls for Dorian to pass offshore of the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday. This track would bring heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to the Grand Strand. There is still considerable uncertainty in the path several days away, and a direct hurricane hit is possible, as well as a path that takes Dorian out to sea.
11 AM SUNDAY UPDATE:
NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes have flown back into the eye of Dorian. The NOAA plane reported max winds at 160 mph, while both planes measured winds between 155 and 170 mph. After three days, Dorian is projected to move north and head into shear which can help gradually slow the hurricane down before it heads to the states. Not too many changes as the current forecast are just a few miles west of the previous forecast. A hurricane watch and storm surge watches have now been issued for portions of Florida’s eastern coast given the uncertainty of the track.
10 AM SUNDAY UPDATE:
Dorian continues to strengthen, now with the maximum sustained wind at 175 mph.
8 AM SUNDAY UPDATE:
Dorian is now a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds at 160 mph. The eye wall of the storm us headed to the Abaco Islands.
5 AM SUNDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian continues to move to the northwestern portions of the Bahamas at a tortuously slow rate. The storm, which has maintained Category 4 for over 24 hours, is moving west at eight mph. Dorian remains a powerful hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds at 150 mph. Right now Dorian is located about 255 miles east of West Palm Beach, and about 70 miles east of Great Abaco Island. For the next 48 hours, Dorian will remain in a low shear environment. However, Dorian is expected to weaken as it heads over shallow waters of the northwestern Bahamas through Monday. The official track shifted back west. The long range forecast has not changed, and Dorian could approach the Carolinas by Wednesday and Thursday.
11 PM SATURDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian continues as a dangerous category 4 storm as it approaches the Bahamas. At 11pm, Dorian was located 310 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida and is moving to the west at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds continue at 150 mph, keeping Dorian as a top end category 4 storm.
The forecast brings Dorian into the Bahamas tomorrow as the storm slows down. The northern Bahamas will likely have hurricane conditions through Monday.
The long range forecast has not changed, and Dorian could approach the Carolinas by Wednesday and Thursday.
8 PM SATURDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian has maintained strength and held steady its movement this afternoon and evening. At 8pm, Dorian was a strong category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. The storm was located 335 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida, and it was moving west at 8 mph.
The forecast calls for the storm to continue on this path tonight into tomorrow, then slow down tomorrow and Monday. The storm could impact the northern Bahamas for 36-48 hours! At some point Monday, Dorian will start to turn to the north. Once it makes that northward turn, and regains some forward speed, we will have a better idea on how it will impact the Carolinas. Any impacts look to be Wednesday into Thursday.
5 PM SATURDAY UPDATE:
Hurricane Dorian has been rather steady this afternoon, with no big changes. Maximum sustained winds remain at 150 mph, which makes Dorian a high end category 4 hurricane. The storm has been moving steadily, but slowly to the west today, and that movement is expected tonight. Dorian should slow down tomorrow and Monday as it moves through the northern Bahamas. Dorian should maintain its strength through Monday with minor fluctuations in strength, at times getting a little stronger, at times a little weaker, but it should remain a powerful storm.
Because the storm is expected to slow down and even stall on Monday, the forecast beyond Monday has a higher than normal error potential. Dorian can still make a direct hit on Florida, although most indications are that it will remain offshore. The offshore track as it turns north increases the threat for the Carolinas, and it is possible that we could see tropical storm or hurricane conditions Wednesday and Thursday.
Continue to monitor the progress and forecast for Dorian. It is likely that there will be adjustments in the forecast over the next few days.