9AM TUESDAY UPDATE:
National Hurricane Center:
1. A small low pressure system is located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little better organized this morning, and conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to west-northwestward.
Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90%
Formation chance through 5 days…high…90%
2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near the central Texas coast has changed little in organization. However, some slight development is still possible before the system moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast later tonight or early Wednesday. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce areas of very heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding along the coastal regions of southwestern Louisiana and central and upper Texas tonight and Wednesday, and over eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Thursday. For additional information, see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30%
Formation chance through 5 days…low…30%
6AM TUESDAY UPDATE:
NHC: A small low pressure system located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system has changed little in organization since yesterday, but conditions are still expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to west-northwestward.
Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70%
Formation chance through 5 days…high…90%
2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become a little more concentrated during the past several hours. Nearby observations indicate that although pressures are falling in the area, there are no signs of a surface circulation at this time. Some slight development is possible before the system moves inland along the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding along portions of the central and upper Texas coastal areas later this week. For additional information, see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30%
Formation chance through 5 days…low…30%
11am Monday Update:
NHC: Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association with a small low pressure system located over the central tropical Atlantic. Satellite data also indicate that the low has become better defined, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward to west-northwestward.
Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60%
Formation chance through 5 days…high…90%
6am Monday Update:
Thunderstorm activity increased overnight for Invest 97-L. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
Formation chance: through 48 hours – medium – 50%
Formation chance: through 5 days – high – 80%
